The Social Security Administration (SSA) will announce the official 2026 COLA on October 24 — even during a government shutdown. Here’s what retirees can expect: a 2.7% to 2.8% raise, worth about $54 to $56 more per month for the average beneficiary.
Social Security Payment Increase 2026: Overview
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Announcement Date | October 24, 2025 |
| COLA 2026 Estimate | 2.7% – 2.8% |
| Average Increase | $54 – $56 per month for retired workers |
| Source Index | CPI-W (Q3 2024 → Q3 2025 change) |
| Agency | Social Security Administration (SSA) |
| Affected Programs | Social Security, SSI, SSDI |
| COLA Effective Date | January 2026 benefits (paid February) |
| Official Site | www.ssa.gov |
COLA 2026 — A Raise Amid a Shutdown
Despite Washington gridlock and an ongoing federal shutdown, the SSA has confirmed it will release the 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) on October 24, 2025. That’s because the data needed to set the figure — the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) — is compiled separately by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which continues to operate in limited capacity.
“Social Security benefits won’t be delayed or affected by a shutdown,” said an SSA spokesperson.
“The COLA announcement is statutory and will go out as scheduled.”Also Read
Social Security COLA 2026 Increase – SSA Confirms Expected Announcement Date
How COLA Is Calculated?
Every autumn, the SSA adjusts benefits to protect retirees from inflation. The formula is simple:
That percentage change, rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, becomes the next year’s COLA.
- CPI-W Q3 2024: up 2.5% → 2025 COLA was 2.5%.
- CPI-W Q3 2025: forecast ≈ 2.7%–2.8% → 2026 COLA ≈ 2.7%–2.8%.
Why the Forecast Is Higher Than Expected?
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) and independent analysts like Mary Johnson have nudged their forecasts up from 2.1% in February to 2.7%–2.8% by September.
The reason?
- Tariffs re-introduced by President Donald Trump have driven import prices up.
- Inflation, which was 2.3% in April 2025, rose to 2.9% by August.
- Yale’s Budget Lab estimates average U.S. import tax now at 16.7%, the highest since 1936.
“The tariffs are pushing inflation back up, and that feeds directly into the COLA formula,” explained Johnson.
“Retirees should expect a modest but meaningful bump.”
What the 2.7%–2.8% Increase Means for You?
The average retired worker currently receives about $2,008 per month. A COLA of 2.7% to 2.8% would raise that by roughly $54–$56.
| Benefit Type | 2025 Monthly Avg. | After 2.7% COLA | After 2.8% COLA | Extra Per Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retired worker | $2,008 | $2,062 | $2,064 | $54 – $56 |
| Spouse of retiree | $955 | $981 | $982 | $26 – $27 |
| Disabled worker | $1,537 | $1,578 | $1,580 | $41 – $43 |
| SSI recipient | $698 | $717 | $718 | $19 – $20 |
(Source: SSA Projections – August 2025 Data)
Payments reflecting the new COLA will begin January 2026 (for February checks).
Key Dates to Remember
| Event | Date | Details |
|---|---|---|
| CPI-W September report | Oct 10 2025 (expected) | Final inflation data for COLA formula |
| COLA announcement | Oct 24 2025 | SSA press release + media brief |
| COLA notices to beneficiaries | Dec 2025 | Mailed & posted to My Social Security |
| New benefit amounts start | Jan 2026 (paid Feb 2026) | Applies to SS, SSI, SSDI checks |
How the Government Shutdown Affects SSA?
Even though most federal agencies have paused non-essential services, Social Security offices remain open. COLA processing and benefit payments are funded through the Trust Fund, not annual appropriations.
- Your payments will continue.
- The COLA announcement will still happen.
- Some field offices may see reduced staff or appointment delays.
How to See Your New Amount?
Beneficiaries will receive their COLA notices by:
- Mail in December 2025
- Online: via My Social Security Account
Your letter will also list updated Medicare Part B premiums, which may offset part of the increase.
“Don’t panic if your net deposit doesn’t rise by the full COLA — Medicare deductions can shrink the take-home gain,” warned retirement advisor Paul Rosenberg.
Real Value vs Inflation
Even with a 2.8% raise, many retirees will see little real improvement if inflation stays above 3%. That’s why advocates continue to push for a seniors-specific inflation index (CPI-E) to replace the CPI-W, which under-weights healthcare and housing costs — the two largest expenses for older adults.
Expert Perspective
“The COLA is crucial but insufficient,” said Mary Johnson (TSCL).
“Retirees are still losing purchasing power — about 40% since 2000. We need a formula that tracks real senior expenses.”
Economists agree the 2026 adjustment will be a “steadying but not game-changing” increase.
Other Updates Expected on Oct 24
Alongside the COLA announcement, SSA will also release new figures for:
| Metric | 2025 | Expected 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings Test Limit (before full retirement age) | $22,320 | ≈ $23,760 |
| Max Taxable Earnings | $168,600 | ≈ $172,400 |
| SSI Federal Base Payment | $943 (individual) | ≈ $968 |
| Medicare Part B Premium | $174.70 | ≈ $180 – $183 |
These changes will be included in SSA’s official press release on October 24, 2025.
Bottom Line
The 2026 Social Security COLA of ≈ 2.7%–2.8% will deliver a modest raise for over 71 million Americans.
It won’t erase inflation’s impact, but it will help retirees keep pace as prices continue to rise under new trade and tax pressures.
“Every dollar matters when you’re on a fixed income,” said Florida retiree Helen Mendez, 78.
“Even an extra $50 means I can cover my electric bill without cutting groceries.”
FAQs: Social Security COLA 2026
When is the official announcement?
October 24, 2025 — SSA press release will confirm the percentage.
What is the expected increase?
Roughly 2.7%–2.8%, adding $54–$56 a month for the average retiree.
Will the government shutdown delay COLA?
No. The COLA process continues regardless of a shutdown.
When will I see the increase in my check?
January 2026 benefits (payable in February).
Where can I find my COLA notice?
Via mail or your My Social Security account online.
Does the COLA apply to SSI and SSDI too?
Yes — all SSA benefits adjust by the same percentage.
