The Social Security Administration (SSA) has confirmed that the 2026 COLA increase—projected at 2.7%—will be officially announced on October 24, 2025, after a brief delay caused by the federal government shutdown.
Social Security COLA 2026 Increase: Overview
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Program | Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) 2026 |
| Authority | Social Security Administration (SSA) |
| Projected Increase | 2.7% – 2.8% |
| Official Announcement | October 24, 2025 |
| Effective Month | January 2026 |
| Affected Programs | Social Security & Supplemental Security Income (SSI) |
| Reason for Delay | Federal government shutdown delaying CPI data |
| Inflation Index Used | CPI-W (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers) |
| Next COLA Payment | January 2026 |
SSA Confirms 2026 COLA Announcement Date
The Social Security Administration (SSA) has confirmed that the 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) will be officially announced on October 24, 2025, following a short delay caused by the government shutdown that temporarily halted operations at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The upcoming increase is expected to be around 2.7%, slightly higher than the 2.5% adjustment retirees received in 2025. The raise will take effect starting January 2026, automatically boosting benefits for 71 million Americans, including retirees, survivors, and disabled workers.
“Despite the shutdown delay, the COLA will be implemented on schedule,” said an SSA spokesperson.
“There will be no disruption to January 2026 payments.”
How the 2026 COLA is Calculated?
The COLA is based entirely on third-quarter inflation — specifically the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
SSA compares the average CPI-W for July, August, and September of 2025 with the same period from 2024. The percentage difference becomes the official COLA rate.
| Calculation Period | Data Used | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| July – Sept 2024 | CPI-W baseline | Reference value |
| July – Sept 2025 | CPI-W current | Determines % change |
| Formula | (CPI-W 2025 ÷ CPI-W 2024) – 1 | COLA % increase |
Only Q3 inflation counts. Price changes earlier in the year—no matter how extreme—don’t affect the final number unless they persist through September.
Projected 2026 COLA Increase
Economists and advocacy groups like the Senior Citizens League (TSCL) expect the COLA to land between 2.7% and 2.8%, depending on September’s CPI-W data.
Here’s what that means for average monthly benefits:
| Beneficiary Type | Average 2025 Benefit | Projected 2026 Benefit (2.7%) | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retired Worker | $2,008 | $2,062 | +$54 |
| Disabled Worker | $1,537 | $1,580 | +$43 |
| Survivor / Widow(er) | $1,770 | $1,814 | +$44 |
While modest, the 2026 raise continues a string of above-average COLAs following the post-pandemic inflation years of 2022–2024.
Why the Announcement Was Delayed?
The federal government shutdown in October 2025 temporarily suspended key BLS operations, delaying the release of the September inflation report.
Without that data, the SSA couldn’t finalize its calculation.
Timeline:
- Original announcement date: October 15, 2025
- Revised CPI-W release: October 24, 2025
- SSA COLA announcement: October 24, 2025 (same day)
The SSA confirmed that benefits will still be paid on time in January, regardless of administrative delays.
What the 2.7% Increase Means for Retirees?
While the 2.7% boost keeps benefits aligned with inflation, retirees may see only a small net gain once rising costs—especially healthcare and Medicare premiums—are factored in.
| Expense Pressure | Projected 2026 Impact |
|---|---|
| Medicare Part B Premium | Expected to rise 11.5%, to about $206.20/month |
| Prescription Drug Costs | Up 5–6% year-over-year |
| Housing & Utilities | Up 4.3% nationwide |
| Groceries | Slight easing, but still up 3.8% year-over-year |
Many seniors will see much of their COLA absorbed by healthcare costs and higher living expenses.
“It’s progress, but not prosperity,” said TSCL policy analyst Mary Johnson, who estimates half the COLA will be offset by Medicare increases alone.
Payment Timeline for 2026
COLA increases take effect December 1, 2025, but beneficiaries see the change in January 2026 payments, issued according to the SSA’s standard schedule.
| Payment Type | January 2026 Deposit Date |
|---|---|
| SSI | December 31, 2025 (early) |
| Social Security (1–10 birthdays) | January 8, 2026 |
| Social Security (11–20 birthdays) | January 15, 2026 |
| Social Security (21–31 birthdays) | January 22, 2026 |
Recent COLA History
| Year | COLA Rate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5.9% | Post-pandemic inflation rebound |
| 2023 | 8.7% | Highest increase in 40 years |
| 2024 | 3.2% | Inflation began cooling |
| 2025 | 2.5% | Stabilizing prices |
| 2026 (projected) | 2.7% | Gradual normalization |
Why COLA Matters More Than Ever?
COLA adjustments ensure purchasing power doesn’t erode for retirees who rely heavily on fixed income. However, the CPI-W index doesn’t fully represent senior spending patterns—especially in healthcare and housing—leading some advocates to push for a CPI-E (Elderly Index) that better reflects retiree costs.
Advocacy groups argue that:
- Seniors spend roughly 2x more on healthcare than younger consumers.
- CPI-W underweights medical and housing costs.
- Adopting CPI-E could yield slightly higher annual adjustments.
For now, SSA continues to use CPI-W, the same measure adopted since the 1970s.
What Beneficiaries Should Watch Next?
- October 24, 2025: SSA officially announces the COLA percentage.
- Late October–December 2025: Medicare Part B and D premium letters arrive.
- January 2026: COLA-adjusted payments begin.
- Tax season (April 2026): Review changes to taxable thresholds for Social Security income.
- Legislative outlook: Congress continues discussions about adjusting the COLA formula long-term.
“Every tenth of a percent matters when you’re living on a fixed income,” said AARP’s chief policy director Nancy LeaMond. “The COLA is a lifeline, not a luxury.”
At a Glance
| Key Detail | Confirmed Date / Estimate |
|---|---|
| Projected COLA 2026 | 2.7% (SSA confirmed estimate) |
| Official Announcement | October 24, 2025 |
| Reason for Delay | Government shutdown delaying CPI data |
| Effective Month | January 2026 |
| Average Monthly Gain | $40–$60 per household |
| Part B Premium Forecast | $206.20/month |
| Beneficiaries Impacted | 71 million Americans |
FAQs: Social Security COLA 2026
When will SSA announce the COLA increase?
On October 24, 2025, once the September CPI-W data is released.
What is the expected COLA for 2026?
Between 2.7% and 2.8%, based on current inflation data.
When do I start receiving the new rate?
In your January 2026 payment (effective December 1, 2025).
Will the shutdown affect payments?
No, SSA confirmed that benefit disbursements will continue on schedule.
Why does the COLA feel smaller?
Higher Medicare premiums and living costs offset part of the increase.
Will COLA stay around 2–3% going forward?
Analysts expect stabilized rates near that range unless inflation spikes again.
