The 2025-2026 First Snowfall Forecast is here — and experts say it’ll be a stormy, colder-than-average winter for much of the U.S. From the Rockies to the Great Lakes and Northeast, here’s when and where the first snow will fall and what to expect this season.
First Snowfall Forecast 2025-2026: Overview
| Forecast Source | AccuWeather Long-Range Outlook 2025-2026 |
|---|---|
| Season Start | Late September 2025 (Northern Rockies) |
| Peak Snow Months | December 2025 – February 2026 |
| Pattern Driver | Weak La Niña & polar jet stream shifts |
| Most Affected Regions | Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Ohio Valley |
| Least Affected | Deep South & Florida |
| Snowiest City (Forecast) | Buffalo, NY — up to 100 inches |
| Overall Outlook | Cold, stormy “bookend” winter with active early & late storms |
The Season Ahead: A Stormy, Bookend Winter
According to AccuWeather’s 2025-2026 U.S. Winter Forecast, Americans should brace for a “bookend” season — strong winter storms early and late, with a brief lull mid-season.
“It’s shaping up to be an intense, storm-filled winter for the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast,” said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s lead long-range meteorologist.
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The combination of a weak La Niña pattern and polar jet-stream dips means colder air will dominate the northern half of the country while the southern states experience relatively mild, wet conditions.
First Snowfall Forecast by Region
| Region | Expected Timing (2025) | Highlights & Conditions |
|---|---|---|
| Northern Rockies (MT, WY, CO) | Late Sept – Early Oct | Early dustings on high peaks, spreading to ski regions |
| Pacific Northwest (WA, OR) | Late October | First snow in Cascades and Oregon mountains |
| Upper Midwest (ND, MN, WI) | Late Oct – Nov | Early lake-effect snow near Great Lakes |
| Northeast & New England (NY, VT, MA, ME) | Late Oct – Dec | Nor’easter risk rises; first measurable snow by early Dec |
| Central Plains & Mid-Atlantic (KS → PA → VA) | Nov – Dec | First flakes before holidays; icy rain mix possible |
| Southern States (AR, KY, TN) | Late Dec – Jan | Rare snow events in upper South |
| Deep South & Florida | Rare/None | Mostly warm; rain replaces snow |
| Western Mountains & Utah | Variable | Intermittent snowstorms from Dec onward |
Meteorologists note that the first measurable snow for most northern states will occur between late October and mid-November, about a week earlier than last year.
Early Winter Storms: December 2025 Outlook
Early winter systems are expected to emerge from western Canada, moving across the Midwest before reaching the Mid-Atlantic and New England by early December.
Some of these could strengthen into nor’easters, bringing:
- Heavy snow (up to 12 inches per storm)
- Gusty coastal winds (40–60 mph)
- Icy rain in mid-Atlantic states
- Major travel disruptions ahead of the holidays
“We’re watching the week before Christmas as an active period for multi-day snow events,” Pastelok added.
Top 12 Snowiest U.S. Cities (2025-2026 Forecast)
| Rank | City / Region | Projected Snowfall (inches) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo, NY | 90 – 100 | Heavy lake-effect snow, early start |
| 2 | Minneapolis, MN | 75 – 85 | Frequent Midwest storms |
| 3 | Bismarck, ND | 70 – 80 | Long, cold season |
| 4 | Salt Lake City, UT | 60 – 70 | Strong mountain totals |
| 5 | Fargo, ND | 65 – 75 | Arctic air boosts totals |
| 6 | Duluth, MN | 80 – 90 | Intense lake-effect systems |
| 7 | Rochester, NY | 75 – 85 | Steady Great Lakes snow |
| 8 | Erie, PA | 80 – 90 | Blizzard-like events likely |
| 9 | Anchorage, AK | 90 + | Early heavy snow |
| 10 | Marquette, MI | 95 + | Upper Peninsula whiteouts |
| 11 | Flagstaff, AZ | 45 – 55 | High-elevation storms |
| 12 | Mount Washington, NH | 120 + | Nation’s snow crown |
Buffalo again leads the list, potentially nearing the 100-inch mark, while Duluth and Erie remain close behind due to persistent lake-effect snow.
La Niña’s Role in This Winter’s Forecast
A weak La Niña phase is expected to persist into early 2026, influencing temperature and moisture patterns across the U.S.:
- Colder, snowier conditions in the northern tier
- Milder, wetter weather in the southern states
- Frequent jet-stream dips fueling Midwest and East Coast storms
This combination could make January and February 2026 particularly volatile, with alternating warm spells and blizzard conditions — similar to the winters of 2011 and 2018.
Travel & Safety Advisory
The first snow is more than a photo opportunity — it’s a logistical test. The National Weather Service (NWS) warns that early-season snow can catch drivers off-guard, especially when pavement temperatures remain above freezing.
Travel Precautions:
- Check weather.gov before traveling.
- Equip vehicles with winter tires and emergency kits.
- Keep extra travel time for airport and highway delays.
- In mountain regions, carry chains and monitor avalanche advisories.
- Download state DOT apps for live road closures and conditions.
While no federal restrictions are in place, state and local agencies may issue short-term advisories during major snow events, particularly in New England, the Great Lakes, and the Rockies.
Regional Highlights Snapshot
| Region | First Snow Estimate | Notable Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Northeast (ME, NY, VT, MA) | Late Oct – Nov | Nor’easters, blizzard winds |
| Midwest & Great Lakes (MN, WI, MI, IL) | Mid Oct – Nov | Lake-effect snow, whiteouts |
| Rockies & Intermountain West (CO, UT, MT, WY) | Early Oct | Mountain closures, ski boom |
| Pacific Northwest (WA, OR) | Late Oct | Wet snow, icy roads |
| Southern States (TN, KY, AR) | Late Dec – Jan | Occasional snow/ice |
| Deep South & Florida | Rare | Mostly rain, cooler temps |
Early Warning Periods
- October 8 – 22, 2025: First dustings in Rockies & Cascades
- Late November: Snow spreads across Great Lakes & Northeast
- December 10 – 25: Pre-holiday storms from Canada to mid-Atlantic
- February 2026: Second “bookend” storm wave expected
Preparing for the First Snowfall
- Winterize vehicles and homes — check heating systems, antifreeze, and insulation.
- Stock emergency supplies — blankets, flashlights, batteries, and food.
- Plan flexible travel — avoid tight itineraries in December.
- Stay weather-aware — sign up for local NWS alerts or AccuWeather updates.
- Dress smartly — multiple layers and waterproof gear are must-haves for early storms.
Key Takeaways
| Event | Date / Period | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| First Snow in Rockies | Late Sept – Early Oct 2025 | Start of winter pattern |
| Snow Expands East | Oct – Nov 2025 | Midwest & Great Lakes snowfall |
| Pre-Holiday Storms | Early Dec 2025 | Travel disruptions |
| Second Storm Phase | Feb 2026 | Late-season snow surge |
FAQs on First Snowfall Forecast 2025-2026
When will the first snow fall?
Early snow begins late September in the Northern Rockies and spreads to most northern states by November 2025.
Which regions will see the most snow?
The Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and Northeast lead totals, with Buffalo, Erie, and Marquette topping charts.
Will southern states see snow?
Rarely. Only northern Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky may see light snow in late December or January.
What’s driving this winter’s pattern?
A weak La Niña and a polar jet shift pushing cold air farther south than usual.
Will travel be affected?
Yes. Expect airport and highway delays during major December and February storm systems.
