Millions of retirees will need to wait a little longer to learn how much their Social Security checks will rise next year. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has postponed releasing the September 2025 CPI-W—the inflation index that determines the annual Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA)—because of the ongoing federal government shutdown.
The delay has temporarily frozen the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) ability to calculate and announce the official 2026 COLA, leaving more than 70 million Americans in suspense.
CPI-W Delayed Due to Government Shutdown: Overview
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Agency Involved | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) & Social Security Administration (SSA) |
| Reason for Delay | Government shutdown disrupting CPI-W data release |
| New CPI-W Release Date | October 24, 2025 (8:30 a.m. ET) |
| Original Release Date | October 15, 2025 |
| Affected Program | 2026 Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) |
| Estimated Increase | 2.5 % – 2.8 % |
| Effective Date of COLA | January 2026 Payments |
| Beneficiaries Impacted | 71 million + retirees, SSI recipients |
Why the CPI-W Matters?
The CPI-W (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers) measures price changes in everyday goods such as food, fuel, housing, and healthcare.
It’s the core metric the SSA uses to calculate annual COLA increases.
Each year, the agency compares the average CPI-W for July, August, and September to the same three-month period the prior year. The percentage difference between the two becomes the COLA.Because September completes that quarterly average, any delay in releasing September’s data automatically postpones the COLA announcement.
How the Shutdown Froze the Process?
According to the BLS, staffing and operational limits forced it to postpone several key economic reports. The CPI and CPI-W numbers originally due October 15 will now publish October 24 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
That change means the SSA cannot finalize or release the 2026 COLA until the data are official. Historically, the SSA issues its announcement by mid-October, giving seniors time to adjust budgets for the new year. Now, that timeline has slipped roughly ten days, creating uncertainty for households living on fixed incomes.
“The COLA delay is administrative, not financial,” an SSA spokesperson said.
“Payments will still reflect the new rate in January 2026 once inflation data are processed.”Also Read
Social Security COLA 2026 Increase – SSA Confirms Expected Announcement Date
Expected COLA Range: 2.5 % to 2.8 %
Economists tracking July–August 2025 CPI-W figures expect a modest bump between 2.5 % and 2.8 %, signaling cooling inflation after two years of volatility.
| Year | COLA (%) | Economic Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5.9 % | Post-pandemic inflation surge |
| 2023 | 8.7 % | Highest in four decades |
| 2024 | 3.2 % | Inflation cooled but above normal |
| 2025 | 2.5 % | Price stabilization phase |
| 2026 (Est.) | 2.5 % – 2.8 % | Modest growth, steady inflation |
For the average retiree receiving about $2,000 a month, a 2.7 % COLA equals roughly $54 more per month—though rising Medicare Part B premiums may offset part of that increase.
“Even a 2.8 % COLA won’t stretch far if healthcare costs keep outpacing inflation,”
said Kevin Thompson, CEO of 9i Capital Group.
Economic Ripple Effects
Shutdowns like this one reach beyond federal workers.
When agencies can’t release data:
- Markets lose visibility on inflation trends, shaking Treasury and TIPS pricing.
- Economists and businesses lack fresh CPI data for planning and wage indexation.
- Households face uncertainty, particularly seniors who budget around their COLA.
The delay underscores how fragile benefit timelines become when federal reporting halts.
SSA’s Plan: Keep January Payments on Schedule
The SSA has confirmed that once BLS releases the CPI-W on October 24, the agency will immediately calculate and publish the new COLA.
The increase will still appear in January 2026 benefit checks. Beneficiaries will also receive updated benefit-rate letters via mail and their My Social Security accounts.
“We expect no interruption to the January payment cycle,” an SSA official confirmed.
Historical Context: Delays Are Rare but Not New
While uncommon, similar delays have happened before. During the 2013 shutdown, several BLS reports were postponed, slightly delaying the COLA announcement. The difference now is the heightened scrutiny on inflation and millions more retirees relying on Social Security as primary income.
COLA Trends Over Time
The chart below shows how COLA rates have fluctuated since 2016—illustrating the inflation roller-coaster seniors have faced:
| Year | COLA (%) | Economic Backdrop |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0.0 % | No inflation; benefits frozen |
| 2017 | 0.3 % | Mild inflation rebound |
| 2018 | 2.0 % | Steady price growth |
| 2019 | 2.8 % | Strong expansion phase |
| 2020 | 1.6 % | Trade tensions, global slowdown |
| 2021 | 1.3 % | Low inflation early recovery |
| 2022 | 5.9 % | Post-pandemic surge |
| 2023 | 8.7 % | Peak inflation |
| 2024 | 3.2 % | Cooling phase |
| 2025 | 3.0 % | Stabilized prices |
2026’s COLA, expected in the 2.5 %–2.8 % range, continues this cooling trend.
Winners & Losers
| Group | Impact |
|---|---|
| Retirees | Minor increase in January benefits; temporary delay in official notice |
| Disability Recipients | Same timeline; January boost on schedule |
| Economists / Investors | Short-term data gap affects forecasts |
| Federal Workers & Analysts | Continued backlog in inflation reporting |
What Experts Are Saying?
“The CPI-W delay highlights how dependent Social Security is on federal data pipelines.”
— Alex Beene, Financial Instructor, University of Tennessee at Martin
“The delay doesn’t change the math—just the timing. Benefits still rise once numbers post.”
— Shannon Benton, The Senior Citizens League
FAQs
Why is the 2026 COLA delayed?
Because the BLS hasn’t released the September CPI-W due to the government shutdown.
When will it be announced?
Expected October 24 – 28, 2025, shortly after the CPI-W release.
Will my January 2026 payment include the new COLA?
Yes — the SSA confirmed payments will be adjusted automatically.
How much is the expected increase?
Between 2.5 % and 2.8 %, or about $50 – $55 per month for the average retiree.
Can the shutdown reduce my benefits?
No — it only delays the announcement, not the increase itself.
Where can I check my updated amount?
In your My Social Security account or via the official COLA notice by mail.
Big-Picture Takeaway
The 2026 COLA announcement is on pause — but the raise is still coming.
A 2.5 %–2.8 % increase is projected, and beneficiaries will see it reflected in January payments.
While the shutdown’s impact is temporary, it reveals how dependent Social Security is on timely economic data — and how quickly political gridlock can affect every household budget in America.
